New projections suggest the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic is slowing in Ontario even though cases remain on the rise, health officials said Thursday as they warned the situation could quickly worsen again.
The latest modelling shows the province appears to be moving away from the worst-case scenario as the second wave continues to take hold, and is expected to settle into a range of 800 to 1,200 new daily cases for the next several weeks, the panel of health officials said.
“Most indicators are showing slow in growth in COVID-19 cases, the trajectory appears to be moving away from the worst case, but cases are continuing to climb,” said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, one of the people behind the analysis.
“So this is not that we have crested and are now coming back down the other side of the epidemic curve — we’re just getting to a slower period of growth within that curve,” said Brown, who is the dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.
The projections also show a slower growth in the hospitalization rate and a use of intensive care beds that is “much more within the realm or the limits of the health system right now,” he said.
Of the three projected scenarios, only the worst involves ICU use at a level that would push the health system to limit surgeries, he said.
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