But what if there isn’t?
If those forecasts are wrong, everything from economic growth to stock and bond prices could be affected, economists and market strategists say. Industries which are already struggling could be put into a permanent tailspin. Stock prices, especially in the U.S., would be set for a tumble. Local government tax revenues could also take a hit, as vacancies rise and the value of commercial real estate falls.
A study at the U.K.’s Imperial College of London released this week found that COVID antibodies in people who’ve been infected don’t last very long, suggesting that long-lasting herd immunity — even with a vaccine — might not be achievable.
“It will be a disaster if it’s the worst-case scenario and there’s no vaccine,” said Tony Frost, an economist and associate professor at Western University’s Ivey School of Business.