Source: The Standard
Niagara’s economy remains resilient amid global and trade-related pressures, which have led to soft local GDP (gross domestic product) and wage growth, along with sector-specific job losses.
Blake Landry, Niagara Region’s manager of research and analysis, told regional councillors population and labour force growth, as well as industrial and commercial investment, will help to offset some of the pressures on the local economy.
“During these challenges, whether it be the global recession or the pandemic, Niagara’s always come out on top,” Landry told the region’s planning and economic development committee recently. “Afterwards, we’ve always been stronger. Sometimes we are forced to diversify and look at new market opportunities, but it ultimately ends up being better for us in the long term.”
Landry said continued focus on economic development, labour force development, strategic infrastructure investment and emerging sector development is key to long-term success.
“A lot of that was present in the recent federal budget,” he said. “In particular, major infrastructure to facilitate trade and economic diversification, which will help us with things like highways, bridges, ports, electrical grids, digital corridors, defence, housing and other initiatives that boost productivity, will ultimately bring relief to companies disproportionately affected by the tariff environment.”
At the end of the second quarter of 2025, Canada’s GDP dropped by 0.4 per cent, the largest contraction in the past nine years outside the COVID-19 pandemic.
This year’s decline was driven by lower exports and reduced business investor confidence stemming from U.S. trade policy, Landry said.
By comparison, Niagara’s GDP grew by one per cent from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025 and outpaced Ontario’s 0.5 per cent growth but is still short of sustainable levels.
Labour market indicators for Niagara, including employment and participation rates, performed well in the first half of 2025 but softened considerably in the third quarter, Landry said.
Statistics Canada data showed between the third quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025, the labour force in Niagara grew by 4.7 per cent (12,000 people), while employment increased by 5.1 per cent (11,900 people).
However, in the third quarter of 2025, the labour force declined by 2.74 per cent (7,300 people) and employment fell by 2.68 per cent (6,600 people).
Sectors most affected included transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, health care and social assistance and construction — most of which are goods-producing industries impacted by tariffs.
“We’re actually faring quite well in terms of employment and keeping people employed despite some of these challenges in the economy,” Landry said. “Niagara is a little more volatile than Ontario. This is because people here jump in and out of the labour force. A lot has to do with demographics.
“Although we’re really successful at bringing in younger demographics, we still have an older demographic here who is more likely to leave the labour force during economic disruption. I believe that has a lot to do with the volatility and we’re at kind of a historic level.”
The Conference Board of Canada showed average employment income in Niagara increased by just 0.7 per cent from the third quarter 2024 to the third quarter of 2025 and reached $54,913. In comparison, Ontario’s employment income grew by 1.7 per cent to $69,660 during the same period.
Retail sales softened in the third quarter of 2025 following strong growth and reflected reduced consumer confidence.
Niagara housing prices declined by 5.2 per cent.
Landry said housing prices are a good economic indicator because those statistics are available every month. As soon as economic conditions change, they are immediately reflected in housing prices, which dropped in Niagara by about 5.2 per cent to $609,000.
In Ontario, the price was down 6.4 per cent to $791,000.
“Comparatively speaking, Niagara is more affordable than Ontario,” Landry said. “Although $609,000 is still a lot of money, we are still competitive and this is still a positive indicator when people are looking to invest and do business here.”
Landry said Niagara has seen consistent industrial investment growth during the past few years, with large projects either under construction or scheduled for the next couple of years.
“I expect this to remain strong for the next at least two or three years, especially as some of the major projects come online, including Asahi Kasei and Jungbunzlauer in Port Colborne and Siltech in Fort Erie,” Landry said.
“All of these industrial projects help sustain the economy during some of these turbulent times. These are all good construction jobs that support greater economic activity in the region.”